The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050?
Cumulative global GDP growth between 2016 and 2050
China’s projected share of world GDP at PPPs by 2050
India’s global GDP ranking at PPPs by 2050 (behind China but ahead of the US)
EU27’s share of global GDP at PPPs by 2050 (excluding UK)
This report sets out our latest long-term global growth projections to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 85% of world GDP.
Key results of our analysis (as summarised also in the accompanying video) include:
The world economy could more than double in size by 2050, far outstripping population growth, due to continued technology-driven productivity improvements
Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average
As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27’s share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050
UK could be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively
But emerging economies need to enhance their institutions and their infrastructure significantly if they are to realise their long-term growth potential.
Our analysis also identifies a number of key challenges for policy-makers, including:
Avoid a slide back into protectionism, which history suggests would be bad for global growth in the long run
Ensuring that the potential benefits of globalisation are shared more equally across society
Developing new green technologies to ensure that long-term global growth is environmentally sustainable
Please download our full report for more in-depth analysis of these policy issues.
Our report, which can be downloaded in full below, also considers the opportunities for business:
As emerging markets mature, they will become less attractive as low cost manufacturing bases but more attractive as consumer and business-to-business (B2B) markets
But international companies need strategies that are flexible enough to adapt to local customer preferences and rapidly evolving local market dynamics
Please also take a look at the research of our Growth Markets Centre for detailed examples of how companies can succeed in emerging markets.
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